No pitcher’s elbow seems safe anymore. Earlier in spring training, Yu Darvish, the perennial Cy Young contender and ace of the Texas Rangers staff, had Tommy John surgery. A week later, promising Mets pitcher Zach Wheeler was under the knife. Those guys are part of a proud lineage of phenoms whose elbows couldn’t withstand the crazy forces of pitching a baseball every five days. In the past five years, 299 major and minor league pitchers have had Tommy John surgery.1According to data collected by sabermetrician Jon Roegele. The epidemic — or whatever you want to call it — isn’t over yet.But beneath the scary headlines and the relentless drumbeat of crisis, there’s a silver lining to this rash of pitcher injuries: Having a bum elbow sure beats having a bum shoulder. Despite all the Tommy John surgeries, we’re living in a golden era of pitcher health.It’s hard not to be anxious about a crisis when you look at data about just how many ulnar collateral ligaments are being repaired through Tommy John surgery. The number of surgeries in the past 10 years is 115 percent higher than it was the 10 years prior.That’s a huge spike, yes, but the intriguing thing is what’s happened as those elbows have flared up: Shoulders haven’t. Using data from Baseball Prospectus’s injury archive (maintained by Corey Dawkins), we can chart the escalating number of elbow surgeries over the past 35 years against the number of shoulder surgeries2This graph looks at all levels of baseball (major and minor leagues) from 1981 onward.: Right around 1998, the two paths diverge, and in recent years, shoulder surgeries are down.3I believe credit for noticing this trend goes to sabermetrician Jeff Zimmerman. After a peak in 2009, when more than 40 operations were performed, shoulder surgeries seem to be fading toward extinction, with only 12 in 2014. Some have attributed the decrease in shoulder injuries to improved shoulder exercises. This explanation is consistent with the fact that shoulder injuries have disappeared for position players, as well.The decreasing trend in shoulder problems matters because shoulder surgeries are more debilitating than the now-routine Tommy John. Whereas about 80 percent of major league pitchers in my data set4The recovery rate is in agreement with other estimates from experts such as Dr. Glenn Fleisig. returned from UCL reconstruction to pitch in the majors, only 67 percent came back from shoulder surgeries. (From here on out, I’m examining only the pitchers who were major leaguers at the time of their surgery.) Whether because of recency bias or some other factor, we tend to forget once-great throwers like Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, and Kerry Wood, all of whose careers were cut short because of shoulder ailments. Wood, in particular, is an instructive example. He came back from Tommy John early in his career only to be done in by a rotator cuff surgery several years later.There are, of course, pitchers who never make it back from Tommy John, and if you are a Rangers fan, or simply a connoisseur of great pitching (as I am), even a 20 percent risk of Darvish never returning seems drastically high. But not all pitchers are the same. Using logistic regression, I examined how the risk of failing to return after UCL reconstruction varies by the characteristics of the specific pitcher in question.Starting pitchers are more likely to make it back than relievers, for example. I found that 90 percent of starters returned from Tommy John surgery, versus 74 percent of relievers. In addition, the better a pitcher is before his stint on the DL (measured by his strikeouts and walks per nine innings), the more likely he is to recover.How healthy that pitcher is before his surgery also matters. The longer the injury history, the less likely he is to successfully recuperate. All parts of a pitcher’s arm are connected in a kinetic chain. Because the pitching motion is so stressful on an arm, a problem at one end of the chain can weaken another end of it. Take Joel Zumaya, the fire-breathing reliever for the 2006 Detroit Tigers who never made it back from Tommy John. Zumaya had a long injury history, including problems in his hand, wrist, elbow and shoulder. No one can say with certainty which part of his arm was the one that ruined his chances of being a major league pitcher. Darvish, on the other hand, is a relatively healthy starting pitcher with excellent strikeout and walk numbers. He should be counted as among the most likely to make it back to MLB.There’s a pessimism that follows any pitcher to the DL — that even if he does return, he will never attain his former abilities again. There’s some merit to that: While many pitchers return to their former levels of performance, some seem to lose a measure of their ability. Francisco Liriano never again matched the 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings he put up in his rookie season, which was followed by elbow surgery. But for every Liriano, there’s an Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals ace. He averaged 8.3 K/9 in the year before his surgery and posted an identical 8.3 K/9 the year after.When I looked more generally at the historical record of pitchers who had undergone Tommy John, I found that there was an evident decline in their performance. However, it was not nearly as bad as the one that followed shoulder surgeries. Shoulder problems reduce strikeouts and increase walks, both to greater degrees than similarly severe problems to a pitcher’s elbow:Tommy John recipients barely saw their strikeouts drop at all. On average, strikeouts declined by 0.06 K/9 following Tommy John surgery. Contrast that with the sufferers of shoulder surgery, who saw a substantial (and much greater) average drop in K/9 of 0.37. That’s a 5 percent decrease for those pitchers.There was a 0.18 increase in walks per nine innings (BB/9) for the Tommy John recipients, but a greater 0.33 increase in BB/9 for the shoulder surgery recipients.There’s one other noticeable effect of these surgeries: Pitchers pitch less when they come back. Both types of pitcher injuries seem to lead to a decrease in innings pitched in the three years after the surgery relative to the years before. But, again, shoulder surgeries appear to be worse than elbow surgeries.Pitchers who underwent UCL reconstruction saw their number of innings pitched decline by an average of about 53 innings in the three years following their return — no small margin. In contrast, pitchers who underwent shoulder surgery experienced a much greater decrease, notching more than 134 fewer innings.All this means that there are tons of players getting Tommy John surgery, but that’s not the worst fate for a pitcher these days. Darvish is very likely to return, likely to strike out nearly as many guys per game as he once did, but likely to do it in fewer innings. Rangers fans, you can stop worrying about Darvish’s elbow. Just keep praying his shoulder holds up.
Categories: Local San Diego News FacebookTwitter KUSI Newsroom, Updated: 4:37 PM Posted: November 9, 2018 KUSI Newsroom November 9, 2018 OCEANSIDE (KUSI) – A spate of sightings of a roughly 12-foot shark near Oceanside Municipal Pier Friday afternoon prompted a temporary closure of a two-mile stretch of beach in the area.Fishermen on boats began spotting the sea predator 100 to 500 yards from shore about 12:30 p.m., city lifeguard Sgt. Gregory Trebbe said. Soon, about a half-dozen sightings had been reported.As a public-safety precaution, lifeguards cleared everyone out of the surf a mile to the north and south of the pier, made announcements to beachgoers about the closure and posted signs along the shoreline in the affected area.On the rare occasions when sharks are sighted off the coast of Oceanside, they “are typically just passing through our waters,” posing no active threats to swimmers and surfers, Trebbe noted.“Barring any other reports or incidents, the water will reopen (Saturday) morning,” he said.It was unclear what type of shark was cruising in the area. Shark sighting prompts Oceanside beach closure
U.S. News & World Report has become the latest magazine to be distributed on the Amazon Kindle.The title joins 15 other titles available on the digital reader, including Newsweek, Time, the Atlantic and Slate.The news comes a week after the title announced its plans to shift from a weekly to bi-weekly frequency starting in 2009. U.S. News’ ad pages fell about 37.5 percent and ad revenue dropped 34.8 percent during the first quarter, according to Publishers Information Bureau figures.
Spider-Man: Far From Home spoilers sneakin’ up on you like Peter Parker in his Stealth Suit. Jay Maidment/Sony Pictures Spider-Man: Far From Home brings Phase 3 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe to a close with a joyous teen adventure. It also returns to the grand tradition of postcredits scenes after Avengers: Endgame offered only an audio Easter egg of Tony Stark forging his armor in the first Iron Man.Far From Home’s first postcredits scene is essential viewing, and the second is fun but will make you rethink the entire movie.If you haven’t seen Far From Home yet, be warned that you’re about to get caught in a web of spoilers.Scene 1: Mysterio’s revenge and a glorious returnSpider-Man (Tom Holland) swings a flustered MJ (Zendaya) through the Manhattan skyline and drops her off at 8th Avenue and 33rd Street, where a massive screen on the side of Madison Square Garden shows a report from TheDailyBugle.net.A doctored video makes it look like Spidey killed Mysterio (Jake Gyllenhaal) during the climactic battle in London — the illusionist’s recorded testimony says Spidey is a villain from another universe who was controlling the drones wreaking havoc on the UK capital. How to watch every Marvel Cinematic Universe film in the right order Spider-Man: Far From Home director talks postcredit scene… As for where he got the video, it was probably from Mysterio’s assistant William Ginter Riva (Peter Billingsley), who escaped with a hard drive after Spidey foiled his boss’ plan in London. We saw earlier in the movie that Riva worked for Obadiah Stane (Jeff Bridges) way back in the first Iron Man, so he’s had two villain employers.It’s also hard to know if Mysterio is really dead — he could’ve used his special-effects wizardry to fake that too.Director Jon Watts told CNET about revealing Peter’s identity and bringing Jameson back.”We knew it had to be on TV for the whole world to see. And we were like what, what news outlet would that be that would publish something like this?” he said.”It felt like it would be the Daily Bugle and if it’s the Daily Bugle, it’s gotta be J Jonah Jameson. And once we got to that point, there’s no question in anyone’s mind, it’s gotta be J.K. Simmons.”Watts noted that the actor’s approach to the character was pretty similar to the one he took for the Raimi movies.”But now he’s more recognizable as a real-world person than he was in those films. So I don’t know; it’s kind of interesting to look at how the world has changed around him,” he said in our interview.There’s no buzz cut, no cigar, no suspenders. But for the most part he’s still the spirit of J Jonah Jameson — I wondered like, was he a newspaper man? What’s happened? There are so many questions. Nothing is as it seems with Nick Fury and Maria Hill. Sony Pictures Scene 2: Nick Fury’s vacationWe discover that this movie’s SHIELD Director Nick Fury (Samuel L. Jackson) and Agent Maria Hill (Cobie Smulders) weren’t the Fury and Hill we know and love.Talos (Ben Mendelsohn) and his wife Soren (Sharon Blynn), a pair of shapeshifting Skrulls, pretended to be Fury and Hill. You might remember this couple being reunited during Captain Marvel, which takes place years prior to Far From Home in the MCU timeline.They were working for the real Fury, who ordered them to get the EDITH glasses to Peter. Talos apparently fell for Beck’s ruse too.The real Fury was chilling on a beach … that turns out to be a virtual reality (VR) simulation on a Skrull vessel somewhere in outer space. Perhaps he needed a vacation after being restored to life in Avengers: Endgame. We don’t see the real Hill. Hopefully she’s enjoying a little leisure time too.Turns out Talos (seen in Captain Marvel) plays a major role in Far From Home. Chuck Zlotnick/Marvel Studios What it meansFury and Hill were actually disguised Skrulls for the whole movie, echoing the Secret Invasion comic storyline where Skrulls secretly replaced humans. This is like a benign version of that sinister takeover, but it could foreshadow a future MCU storyline.There are a few hints about that the SHIELD agents aren’t all they seem during the movie too. Fury has an unusual reaction when Peter mentions Captain Marvel.”Don’t invoke her name,” he says.This reverential tone would be out of character for Fury, but is absolutely in character for Talos — she reunited him with his family back in the ’90s. Performances by Jackson and Smulders are a little flat during the movie too; this revelation makes their acting even more impressive.Maybe Talos was responsible for that Fury poster goof too.It does raise the question of what the Skrulls have been doing since the events of Captain Marvel, when they left Earth to search for a habitable planet where their race could live. Maybe even more people have been replaced by the shapeshifters. Earlier in the movie, Talos-Fury also makes a passing mention of “Kree sleeper cells” — in reference to the race that wiped out the Skrull homeworld. He and Soren could be on Earth to hunt the genocidal aliens.Watts wouldn’t reveal too much about any grander meaning behind this scene.”I don’t want to say anything about where we’re going next but, I mean, having seen Captain Marvel and now that the world knows about Fury and the Skrulls and all of that, it’s just another thing to draw from in this crazy, complicated, rich universe that’s the MCU,” he said in our interview. So Far From Home How to watch every Marvel Cinematic Universe film in the right order 2:17 Then Daily Bugle host J. Jonah Jameson (J. K. Simmons) appears on screen to hail Mysterio as “the greatest superhero of all time” and prepares us for more.”But that’s not all, folks. Here’s the real blockbuster — brace yourselves, you might wanna sit down,” he says.Mysterio’s final testimony reveals to the world Peter Parker’s secret identity as Spider-Man, leaving Spidey and MJ understandably shocked. null Far From Home review: A perfect Avengers: Endgame epilogue Spider-Man: Far From Home is the future of the MCU Far From Home poster goof unleashes Samuel L. Jackson’s Fury Share your voice TV and Movies Comics What it meansSpidey’s been outed to the world and framed for murder, meaning his entire life is turned upside down as we head into Phase 4. It’s a dark, stunning contrast to the end of Iron Man, where Tony Stark revealed his own superhero identity to the press and a nice reference to the comics’ Civil War storyline (which saw Peter outing himself at Tony’s urging).The general public’s also been fed Mysterio’s lies about the multiverse — we’ll see how they react to that.J. Jonah Jameson, as he was seen in Sam Raimi’s Spider-Man trilogy. His MCU counterpart doesn’t have the buzzcut. Sony Pictures Even more importantly, this scene marks the glorious return of Simmons as J. Jonah Jameson. He played the cigar-chomping Daily Bugle boss in all three Sam Raimi Spider-Man movies, but those aren’t part of the MCU and this isn’t the same character — note the lack of a buzzcut.From this glimpse, the MCU’s Jameson appears quite different to the Raimi-verse’s traditional angry newspaperman. Here, he’s more of an Alex Jones-type conspiracy theorist (mirroring his role as an angry podcaster in last year’s PS4 game) — one who was willing to paint a bullseye on a teenage boy based on a choppy video. 26 Photos Now playing: Watch this: Tags Originally published July 1.Update, July 8: Adds comments from Jon Watts. Captain Marvel Marvel Spiderman 0 26 Photos
Police search for missing woman Landscaper Paul Martin’s fine showed his van had been observed on Goodson Street for less than a minute “There was never going to be a bus stopped opposite because they don’t run, so the road would not be blocked by my van. Where’s the common sense in issuing a fine if there are no buses running?” The motorist said he paid his fine, which reduced to £35 within 14 days, because he did park on double yellow lines. But says he can’t understand why it’s a no loading zone when the buses do not stop on Goodson Street. Read MoreShopper buys traffic warden a doughnut as a thank you – and returns to car to find a parking ticket He added: “There’s no buses going down there and at the time I didn’t see the no loading sign. I can’t understand the council putting a no loading bay sign because the traffic will always flow down there. “Instead of putting a bus stop in that isn’t used they should have extended the parking bays so that more people can park there, they could get another four spaces. Follow StokeonTrentLive Download our app – You can download our free app for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or get the Android version from Google Play. Follow StokeonTrentLive on Facebook – Like our Facebook page to get the latest news in your feed and join in the lively discussions in the comments. Click here to give it a like! Follow us on Twitter – For breaking news and the latest stories, click here to follow SOTLive on Twitter. Follow us on Instagram – Featuring pictures past and present from across Stoke-on-Trent, North Staffordshire & South Cheshire – and if you tag us in your posts, we could repost your picture on our page! We also put the latest news in our Instagram Stories. Click here to follow StokeonTrentLive on Instagram. Driver named following fatal collision Get the biggest Daily stories by emailSubscribeSee our privacy noticeThank you for subscribingSee our privacy noticeCould not subscribe, try again laterInvalid EmailLandscaper Paul Martin was caught by a council traffic warden – after he parked on double yellows in a no loading zone in the city centre. But the 50-year-old was astounded when he returned to his car on Goodson Street, Hanley, to find a £70 penalty notice on his silver Nissan van after being inside Abakhan fabric store for just two minutes. The parking fine showed the dad-of-two’s van had been observed for less than a minute on June 11. The hefty fine means Paul has to pay £35 for every minute his car was parked there. Read MoreDad’s £3.78 McDonald’s treat ruined by ‘disrespectful’ £100 fine Now Paul has slammed Stoke-on-Trent City Council for ‘having no common sense’. Paul, from Cheadle, said: “I parked on the double yellows because all of the parking bays were full. On the opposite side is a bus stop, so there was a sign on the double yellows saying ‘no loading at any time’ but I didn’t notice that when I parked there. Dad slams ‘disgusting’ hospital window Punter found hiding in bushes 50-year-old Paul Martin’s receipt from the Abakhan fabric store shows he paid for his zip and left the store at 10.21am “I’ve paid the fine but I think it shouldn’t be a no loading zone if no buses will be stopping opposite as the traffic will always be able to flow. They’re just trying to make money even thought there was never going to be a bus going down there. “The sign should be taken down until the buses start, I think it’s a joke.” A council spokesman said: “Waiting is not allowed in this area at any time and it is clearly marked out. The vehicle parked on recently repainted double yellow lines, next to a sign highlighting the restriction and alongside double yellow ‘tabs’ on the kerb. “Just a few yards away is a section of lawful pay-and-display bays for people to park and access the local facilities. “We have an appeal process for anyone who feels they have received a parking ticket unfairly but in this case Mr Martin has paid the fine, therefore accepting liability and closing the case.” Read MoreTop stories on StokeonTrentLive Landscaper Paul Martin was parked outside Abakhan fabric store, Hanley, for just two minutes “I went into Abakhan fabrics on Goodson Street to buy a £2.60 replacement zip for my wife’s dress as we were going to a wedding on the Saturday. “I was in there for two minutes and when I came out there was a ticket on my van which showed my vehicle had been there from 10.19am-10.19am. I was so mad, it’s not even a minute of observation. “I came out of the shop at 10.21am, two minutes after I parked there, to see a ticket. I went to speak to parking services and they said it’s an instant fine because it’s a no loading zone. Read MoreBlundering traffic wardens wrongly hand out 675 parking fines on seven car parks (and here’s where) “I said ‘I understand that, but I was only there for two minutes, can there not be a five minute leeway?’ But I was told no. The traffic warden could have easily come into the shop and said to me ‘you’re not supposed to park there’ and I could have moved the van. But nobody did and for a two minute stop I’ve been fined £70. “I went back to Abakhan’s to speak to the assistant manager there about it and they said the bus stop opposite the double yellows doesn’t even run, no buses stop there. “She says since the no loading bay was put in because of the bus stop her delivery drivers are always being fined, instead they have to pay to park in one of the bays to load and unload.